资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

We investigated the connections between the precipitation extremes during 1953-2002 in the dry and wet regions of China and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP; including EI Nino-Southern Oscillation 1.2, 3, and 3.4 regions) based on two sets of observations, 17 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and nine regional climate model (RCM) results, which were downscaled using the RCM RegCM4. The grid cells with the lowest 30% nonmissing precipitation extremes were identified as the dry region, and those with the highest 30% comprised the wet region. Compared with observed extreme indices, the CMIP5 ensemble could simulate the temporal averages and spatial patterns of extreme indices in the dry and wet regions, where the temporal averages of the indices based on RCMs matched better with those of the observed indices. In the dry region of China, the extreme precipitation indices had positive regression coefficients versus the SST of the ETP for all data sets, but the linear relationships of the extreme indices with the SST were more complex in the wet region. Finally, we investigated the variations of the correlations of precipitation extremes with the SST of ETP in multiple RCM results and CMIP5 models, respectively.