资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Volcanic activity plays a strong role in modulating climate variability(1). Most model projections of the twenty-first century, however, under-sample future volcanic effects by not representing the range of plausible eruption scenarios(2-4). Here, we explore how sixty possible volcanic futures, consistent with ice-core records(5), impact climate variability projections of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM)(6) under RCP4.5 (ref. 7). The inclusion of volcanic forcing enhances climate variability on annual-to-decadal timescales. Although decades with negative global temperature trends become similar to 50% more commonplace with volcanic activity, these are unlikely to be able to mitigate long-term anthropogenic warming. Volcanic activity also impacts probabilistic projections of global radiation, sea level, ocean circulation, and sea-ice variability, the local-scale effects of which are detectable when quantifying the time of emergence8. These results highlight the importance and feasibility of representing volcanic uncertainty in future climate assessments.