Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3310 |
Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems | |
Thornton, Peter E.1; Calvin, Katherine2; Jones, Andrew D.3; Di Vittorio, Alan V.3; Bond-Lamberty, Ben2; Chini, Louise4; Shi, Xiaoying1; Mao, Jiafu1; Collins, William D.3; Edmonds, Jae2; Thomson, Allison5; Truesdale, John3; Craig, Anthony3; Branstetter, Marcia L.6; Hurtt, George4 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric `CO2 concentration(1). Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing(2,3). While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses(4,5), assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy-economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories(6). Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid-range forcing scenario(7). The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system-demonstrated here-are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy-economic models to ESMs used to date(1,8,9). |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000404545400016 |
WOS关键词 | LAND-USE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CO2 ; UNCERTAINTIES ; 21ST-CENTURY ; SCENARIOS ; RESPONSES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33656 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Climate Change Sci Inst, POB 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA; 2.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 3.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; 4.Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 5.Field Market, 777 N Capitol St NE, Washington, DC 20002 USA; 6.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Comp Sci & Math Div, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thornton, Peter E.,Calvin, Katherine,Jones, Andrew D.,et al. Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(7). |
APA | Thornton, Peter E..,Calvin, Katherine.,Jones, Andrew D..,Di Vittorio, Alan V..,Bond-Lamberty, Ben.,...&Hurtt, George.(2017).Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(7). |
MLA | Thornton, Peter E.,et al."Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.7(2017). |
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