Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3345 |
Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals | |
Schurer, Andrew P.1; Mann, Michael E.2,3; Hawkins, Ed4; Tett, Simon F. B.1; Hegerl, Gabriele C.1 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Scotland; USA; England |
英文摘要 | During the Paris conference in 2015, nations of the world strengthened the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by agreeing to holding 'the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C' (ref.1). However, 'pre-industrial' was not defined. Here we investigate the implications of different choices of the pre-industrial baseline on the likelihood of exceeding these two temperature thresholds. We find that for the strongest mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and a medium scenario RCP4.5, the probability of exceeding the thresholds and timing of exceedance is highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline; for example, the probability of crossing 1.5 degrees C by the end of the century under RCP2.6 varies from 61% to 88% depending on how the baseline is defined. In contrast, in the scenario with no mitigation, RCP8.5, both thresholds will almost certainly be exceeded by the middle of the century with the definition of the pre-industrial baseline of less importance. Allowable carbon emissions for threshold stabilization are similarly highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline. For stabilization at 2 degrees C, allowable emissions decrease by as much as 40% when earlier than nineteenth-century climates are considered as a baseline. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000406742500015 |
WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE-CHANGE ; LAST MILLENNIUM ; CLIMATE MODELS ; PROJECTIONS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33654 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Crew Bldg,Alexander Crum Brown Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, Midlothian, Scotland; 2.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, State Coll, PA 16802 USA; 3.Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, State Coll, PA 16802 USA; 4.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, NCAS Climate, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Schurer, Andrew P.,Mann, Michael E.,Hawkins, Ed,et al. Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(8). |
APA | Schurer, Andrew P.,Mann, Michael E.,Hawkins, Ed,Tett, Simon F. B.,&Hegerl, Gabriele C..(2017).Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(8). |
MLA | Schurer, Andrew P.,et al."Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.8(2017). |
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