Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15824 |
Effects of future climate change on birch abundance and their pollen load | |
Jesú; s Rojo; Jose Oteros; Antonio Picornell; José; M. Maya-Manzano; Athanasios Damialis; Katrin Zink; Matthias Werchan; Barbora Werchan; Matt Smith; Annette Menzel; Sabine Timpf; Claudia Traidl-Hoffmann; Karl-Christian Bergmann; Carsten B. Schmidt-Weber; Jeroen Buters | |
2021-08-17 | |
发表期刊 | Global Change Biology
![]() |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Climate change impacts on the structure and function of ecosystems will worsen public health issues like allergic diseases. Birch trees (Betula spp.) are important sources of aeroallergens in Central and Northern Europe. Birches are vulnerable to climate change as these trees are sensitive to increased temperatures and summer droughts. This study aims to examine the effect of climate change on airborne birch pollen concentrations in Central Europe using Bavaria in Southern Germany as a case study. Pollen data from 28 monitoring stations in Bavaria were used in this study, with time series of up 30 years long. An integrative approach was used to model airborne birch pollen concentrations taking into account drivers influencing birch tree abundance and birch pollen production and projections made according to different climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. Birch tree abundance is projected to decrease in parts of Bavaria at different rates, depending on the climate scenario, particularly in current centres of the species distribution. Climate change is expected to result in initial increases in pollen load but, due to the reduction in birch trees, the amount of airborne birch pollen will decrease at lower altitudes. Conversely, higher altitude areas will experience expansions in birch tree distribution and subsequent increases in airborne birch pollen in the future. Even considering restrictions for migration rates, increases in pollen load are likely in Southwestern areas, where positive trends have already been detected during the last three decades. Integrating models for the distribution and abundance of pollen sources and the drivers that control birch pollen production allowed us to model airborne birch pollen concentrations in the future. The magnitude of changes depends on location and climate change scenario. |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/335938 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jesú,s Rojo,Jose Oteros,et al. Effects of future climate change on birch abundance and their pollen load[J]. Global Change Biology,2021. |
APA | Jesú.,s Rojo.,Jose Oteros.,Antonio Picornell.,José.,...&Jeroen Buters.(2021).Effects of future climate change on birch abundance and their pollen load.Global Change Biology. |
MLA | Jesú,et al."Effects of future climate change on birch abundance and their pollen load".Global Change Biology (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
查看访问统计 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Jesú]的文章 |
[s Rojo]的文章 |
[Jose Oteros]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Jesú]的文章 |
[s Rojo]的文章 |
[Jose Oteros]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Jesú]的文章 |
[s Rojo]的文章 |
[Jose Oteros]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论