Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020WR028499 |
Jointly calibrating hydrologic model parameters and state adjustments | |
S.S.H. Kim; L.A. Marshall; J.D. Hughes; A. Sharma; J. Vaze | |
2021-07-27 | |
发表期刊 | Water Resources Research
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | A method is presented to address model state uncertainty in hydrologic model simulation. This is achieved by introducing tuneable parameters that allow adjustments to the model states. Excessive dimensionality is avoided by introducing only a limited number of parameters that control the index (timing) and size of the state adjustments. The method is designed to compensate for issues with hydrologic model structures, particularly those relevant to the soil moisture state in a rainfall-runoff model. In the context of water resource planning and management, errors in the model states have often been overlooked as an important source of uncertainty and have the potential to significantly degrade model simulations. A synthetic study shows that a classical parameter estimation approach will produce biased distributions when state errors exist, and that the proposed state and parameter uncertainty estimation (SPUE) can remove the bias in parameter estimates for improved model simulations. In a real case study, SPUE and the classical approach are implemented in 46 sites around Australia. The results show that hydrologic parameter distributions for a selected conceptual model can be significantly different when accounting for state uncertainty. This has large implications for scenario modelling since it puts into dispute how to determine appropriate parameters for such studies. SPUE outperforms the classical approach in a range of calibration and validation metrics, particularly sites that contain zero flows. Future work involves testing SPUE with different hydrologic models and likelihood formulations, and enhancing rigor by explicitly accounting for observational data uncertainty. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/335354 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | S.S.H. Kim,L.A. Marshall,J.D. Hughes,et al. Jointly calibrating hydrologic model parameters and state adjustments[J]. Water Resources Research,2021. |
APA | S.S.H. Kim,L.A. Marshall,J.D. Hughes,A. Sharma,&J. Vaze.(2021).Jointly calibrating hydrologic model parameters and state adjustments.Water Resources Research. |
MLA | S.S.H. Kim,et al."Jointly calibrating hydrologic model parameters and state adjustments".Water Resources Research (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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