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DOI | 10.1029/2021GL094361 |
A Multivariate Conditional Probability Ratio Framework for the Detection and Attribution of Compound Climate Extremes | |
Felicia Chiang; Peter Greve; Omid Mazdiyasni; Yoshihide Wada; Amir AghaKouchak | |
2021-07-30 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Most attribution studies tend to focus on the impact of anthropogenic forcing on individual variables. However, studies have already established that many climate variables are interrelated, and therefore, multidimensional changes can occur in response to climate change. Here we propose a multivariate method which uses copula theory to account for underlying climate conditions while attributing the impact of anthropogenic forcing on a given climate variable. This method can be applied to any relevant pair of climate variables; here we apply the methodology to study high temperature exceedances given specified precipitation conditions (e.g., hot droughts). With this method, we introduce a new conditional probability ratio indicator, which communicates the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the likelihood of conditional exceedances. Since changes in temperatures under droughts have already accelerated faster than average climate conditions in many regions, quantifying anthropogenic impacts on conditional climate behavior is important to better understand climate change. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/335310 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Felicia Chiang,Peter Greve,Omid Mazdiyasni,et al. A Multivariate Conditional Probability Ratio Framework for the Detection and Attribution of Compound Climate Extremes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | Felicia Chiang,Peter Greve,Omid Mazdiyasni,Yoshihide Wada,&Amir AghaKouchak.(2021).A Multivariate Conditional Probability Ratio Framework for the Detection and Attribution of Compound Climate Extremes.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Felicia Chiang,et al."A Multivariate Conditional Probability Ratio Framework for the Detection and Attribution of Compound Climate Extremes".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
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