Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0140-y |
Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California | |
Swain, Daniel L.1,2; Langenbrunner, Baird3,4; Neelin, J. David3; Hall, Alex3 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:5页码:427-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood-of which, California's rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016-2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California's 'Great Flood of 1862'. Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California's existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431139900027 |
WOS关键词 | EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS ; DROUGHT ; TEMPERATURE ; CIRCULATION ; ENSEMBLE ; PROJECT ; EVENTS ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33481 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA; 2.Nature Conservancy, 1815 N Lynn St, Arlington, VA 22203 USA; 3.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA; 4.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Swain, Daniel L.,Langenbrunner, Baird,Neelin, J. David,et al. Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(5):427-+. |
APA | Swain, Daniel L.,Langenbrunner, Baird,Neelin, J. David,&Hall, Alex.(2018).Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(5),427-+. |
MLA | Swain, Daniel L.,et al."Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.5(2018):427-+. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论