Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0198-6 |
Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5-2 degrees C pathways | |
Luderer, Gunnar1; Vrontisi, Zoi2,3; Bertram, Christoph1; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.4,5; Pietzcker, Robert C.1; Rogelj, Joeri6,7,8,9; De Boer, Harmen Sytze4,5; Drouet, Laurent10,11; Emmerling, Johannes10,11; Fricko, Oliver6; Fujimori, Shinichiro12,13; Havlik, Petr6; Iyer, Gokul14; Keramidas, Kimon2; Kitous, Alban2; Pehl, Michaja1; Krey, Volker6; Riahi, Keywan6; Saveyn, Bert2; Tavoni, Massimo10,15; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.4,5,11; Kriegler, Elmar1 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:7页码:626-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Spain; Greece; Netherlands; Austria; Switzerland; England; Italy; Japan; USA |
英文摘要 | The Paris Agreement-which is aimed at holding global warming well below 2 degrees C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 degrees C-has initiated a bottom-up process of iteratively updating nationally determined contributions to reach these longterm goals. Achieving these goals implies a tight limit on cumulative net CO2 emissions, of which residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are the greatest impediment. Here, using an ensemble of seven integrated assessment models (IAMs), we explore the determinants of these residual emissions, focusing on sector-level contributions. Even when strengthened pre-2030 mitigation action is combined with very stringent long-term policies, cumulative residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels remain at 850-1,150 GtCO(2) during 2016-2100, despite carbon prices of US$130-420 per tCO(2) by 2030. Thus, 640-950 GtCO(2) removal is required for a likely chance of limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 degrees C. In the absence of strengthened pre-2030 pledges, long-term CO2 commitments are increased by 160-330 GtCO(2), further jeopardizing achievement of the 1.5 degrees C goal and increasing dependence on CO2 removal. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000440200100024 |
WOS关键词 | GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LAND-USE ; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT ; ENERGY DEMAND ; SOLAR POWER ; MODEL ; SCENARIOS ; BIOENERGY ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33432 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany; 2.Edificio Expo, Joint Res Ctr, European Commiss, Seville, Spain; 3.Natl Tech Univ Athens, E3MLab, Sch Elect & Comp Engn, Athens, Greece; 4.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands; 5.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands; 6.IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; 7.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 8.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England; 9.Imperial Coll London, Grantham Inst, London, England; 10.Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, Italy; 11.Fdn Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan, Italy; 12.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 13.Kyoto Univ, Dept Environm Engn, Nishikyo Ku, Kyoto Univ Katsura Campus, Kyoto, Japan; 14.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD USA; 15.Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, Milan, Italy |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Luderer, Gunnar,Vrontisi, Zoi,Bertram, Christoph,et al. Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5-2 degrees C pathways[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(7):626-+. |
APA | Luderer, Gunnar.,Vrontisi, Zoi.,Bertram, Christoph.,Edelenbosch, Oreane Y..,Pietzcker, Robert C..,...&Kriegler, Elmar.(2018).Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5-2 degrees C pathways.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(7),626-+. |
MLA | Luderer, Gunnar,et al."Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5-2 degrees C pathways".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.7(2018):626-+. |
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