Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017JD026900 |
An Assessment of Drift Correction Alternatives for CMIP5 Decadal Predictions | |
Choudhury, Dipayan1,2; Sen Gupta, Alexander2,3; Sharma, Ashish1; Mehrotra, Rajeshwar1; Sivakumar, Bellie1,4 | |
2017-10-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 122期号:19 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; USA |
英文摘要 | Drift correction is an important step before using the outputs of decadal prediction experiments and has seen considerable research. However, most drift correction studies consider a relatively small sample of variables and models. Here, we present a systematic application of the existing drift correction strategies for decadal predictions of various sea surface temperature-based metrics from a suite of five state-of-the-art climate models (CanCM4i1, GFDL-CM2.1, HadCM3i2&i3, MIROC5, and MPI-ESM-LR). The best method of drift correction for each metric and model is reported. Preliminary analysis suggests that there is no single method of drift correction that consistently performs best. Initial condition-based drift correction provides the lowest errors in most regions for MIROC5 and the two HadCM3 models, whereas the trend-based drift correction produces lowest errors for CanCM4i1, GFDL-CM2.1, and MPI-ESM-LR over the largest share of the area. There is no merit in using a k-nearest neighbor approach for these drift correction methods. Further, in almost all cases, the multimodel ensemble outperforms the individual models, and thus, the study conclusively suggests using forecasts based on multimodel averages. We also show some additional benefit to be gained by drift correcting each model/metric using their best correction method prior to model averaging and suggest that the results presented here would help potential users expend time and resources judiciously while dealing with outputs from these experiments. |
英文关键词 | CMIP5 decadal predictions drift correction sea surface temperature |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000413675900020 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-ATLANTIC ; CLIMATE PREDICTIONS ; MULTIMODEL-ENSEMBLE ; PREDICTABILITY ; INITIALIZATION ; TEMPERATURES ; FORECASTS ; RAINFALL ; BIASES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33406 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ New South Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 2.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 3.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 4.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Land Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA 95616 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Choudhury, Dipayan,Sen Gupta, Alexander,Sharma, Ashish,et al. An Assessment of Drift Correction Alternatives for CMIP5 Decadal Predictions[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(19). |
APA | Choudhury, Dipayan,Sen Gupta, Alexander,Sharma, Ashish,Mehrotra, Rajeshwar,&Sivakumar, Bellie.(2017).An Assessment of Drift Correction Alternatives for CMIP5 Decadal Predictions.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(19). |
MLA | Choudhury, Dipayan,et al."An Assessment of Drift Correction Alternatives for CMIP5 Decadal Predictions".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.19(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论