GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/2017JD026900
An Assessment of Drift Correction Alternatives for CMIP5 Decadal Predictions
Choudhury, Dipayan1,2; Sen Gupta, Alexander2,3; Sharma, Ashish1; Mehrotra, Rajeshwar1; Sivakumar, Bellie1,4
2017-10-16
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN2169-897X
EISSN2169-8996
出版年2017
卷号122期号:19
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia; USA
英文摘要

Drift correction is an important step before using the outputs of decadal prediction experiments and has seen considerable research. However, most drift correction studies consider a relatively small sample of variables and models. Here, we present a systematic application of the existing drift correction strategies for decadal predictions of various sea surface temperature-based metrics from a suite of five state-of-the-art climate models (CanCM4i1, GFDL-CM2.1, HadCM3i2&i3, MIROC5, and MPI-ESM-LR). The best method of drift correction for each metric and model is reported. Preliminary analysis suggests that there is no single method of drift correction that consistently performs best. Initial condition-based drift correction provides the lowest errors in most regions for MIROC5 and the two HadCM3 models, whereas the trend-based drift correction produces lowest errors for CanCM4i1, GFDL-CM2.1, and MPI-ESM-LR over the largest share of the area. There is no merit in using a k-nearest neighbor approach for these drift correction methods. Further, in almost all cases, the multimodel ensemble outperforms the individual models, and thus, the study conclusively suggests using forecasts based on multimodel averages. We also show some additional benefit to be gained by drift correcting each model/metric using their best correction method prior to model averaging and suggest that the results presented here would help potential users expend time and resources judiciously while dealing with outputs from these experiments.


英文关键词CMIP5 decadal predictions drift correction sea surface temperature
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000413675900020
WOS关键词NORTH-ATLANTIC ; CLIMATE PREDICTIONS ; MULTIMODEL-ENSEMBLE ; PREDICTABILITY ; INITIALIZATION ; TEMPERATURES ; FORECASTS ; RAINFALL ; BIASES
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33406
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ New South Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia;
2.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia;
3.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia;
4.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Land Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA 95616 USA
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GB/T 7714
Choudhury, Dipayan,Sen Gupta, Alexander,Sharma, Ashish,et al. An Assessment of Drift Correction Alternatives for CMIP5 Decadal Predictions[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(19).
APA Choudhury, Dipayan,Sen Gupta, Alexander,Sharma, Ashish,Mehrotra, Rajeshwar,&Sivakumar, Bellie.(2017).An Assessment of Drift Correction Alternatives for CMIP5 Decadal Predictions.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(19).
MLA Choudhury, Dipayan,et al."An Assessment of Drift Correction Alternatives for CMIP5 Decadal Predictions".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.19(2017).
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