资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Catastrophic meltwater drainage from glacial Lake Agassiz has been hypothesised as a trigger for large-scale ocean circulation change initiating the Younger Dryas cold reversal. Here we quantify the flood discharge that formed the northwestern outlet of Lake Agassiz using a one-dimensional step-backwater model and a zero-dimension gradual-incision model. Applying these two independent models, we estimate a peak discharge range of 1.8-2.5 × 10⁶ m³ s^-1 and a flood volume of ∼21,000 km³. Such a discharge can only be derived from Lake Agassiz rather than one of the two smaller regional glacial lakes: Churchill or Meadow. When coupled with existing ice margin chronologies, these results demonstrate that the northwestern outlet of Lake Agassiz provides a viable link for catastrophic meltwater to drain to the Arctic Ocean over a 5-10 month period during the Younger Dryas, though it is unclear whether this was near its beginning.