Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL092361 |
Quasi-stationary intense rainstorms spread across Europe under climate change | |
Abdullah Kahraman; Elizabeth J. Kendon; Steven Chan; Hayley J. Fowler | |
2021-06-30 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Under climate change, increases in precipitation extremes are expected due to higher atmospheric moisture. However, the total precipitation in an event also depends on the condensation rate, precipitation efficiency, and duration. Here, a new approach following an ‘ingredients-based methodology’ from severe weather forecasting identifies important aspects of the heavy precipitation response to climate change, relevant from an impacts perspective and hitherto largely neglected. Using 2.2km climate simulations, we show that a future increase in precipitation extremes across Europe occurs, not only because of higher moisture and updraft velocities, but also due to slower storm movement, increasing local duration. Environments with extreme precipitation potential are 7x more frequent than today by 2100, whilst the figure for quasi-stationary ones is 11x (14x for land). We find that a future reduction in storm speeds, possibly through Arctic Amplification, could enhance event accumulations and flood risk beyond expectations from studies focusing on precipitation rates. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/333855 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Abdullah Kahraman,Elizabeth J. Kendon,Steven Chan,et al. Quasi-stationary intense rainstorms spread across Europe under climate change[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | Abdullah Kahraman,Elizabeth J. Kendon,Steven Chan,&Hayley J. Fowler.(2021).Quasi-stationary intense rainstorms spread across Europe under climate change.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Abdullah Kahraman,et al."Quasi-stationary intense rainstorms spread across Europe under climate change".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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