Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15780 |
Large variability in response to projected climate and land-use changes among European bumblebee species | |
Reinhard Prestele; Calum Brown; Chiara Polce; Joachim Maes; Penelope Whitehorn | |
2021-07-16 | |
发表期刊 | Global Change Biology |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Bumblebees (Bombus ssp.) are among the most important wild pollinators, but many species have suffered from range declines. Land-use change, agricultural intensification, and the associated loss of habitat have been identified as drivers of the observed dynamics, amplifying pressures from a changing climate. However, these drivers are still underrepresented in continental-scale species distribution modeling. Here, we project the potential distribution of 47 European bumblebee species in 2050 and 2080 from existing European-scale distribution maps, based on a set of climate and land-use futures simulated through a regional integrated assessment model and consistent with the RCP–SSP scenario framework. We compare projections including (1) dynamic climate and constant land use (CLIM); (2) constant climate and dynamic land use (LU); and (3) dynamic climate and dynamic land use (COMB) to disentangle the effects of land use and climate change on future habitat suitability, providing the first rigorous continental-scale assessment of linked climate–land-use futures for bumblebees. We find that direct climate impacts, although variable across species, dominate responses for most species, especially under high-end climate change scenarios (up to 99% range loss). Land-use impacts are highly variable across species and scenarios, ranging from severe losses (up to 75% loss) to considerable gains (up to 68% gain) of suitable habitat extent. Rare species thereby tend to be disproportionally affected by both climate and land-use change. COMB projections reveal that land use may amplify, attenuate, or offset changes to suitable habitat extent expected from climate impact depending on species and scenario. Especially in low-end climate change scenarios, land use has the potential to become a game changer in determining the direction and magnitude of range changes, indicating substantial potential for targeted conservation management. |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/333765 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Reinhard Prestele,Calum Brown,Chiara Polce,et al. Large variability in response to projected climate and land-use changes among European bumblebee species[J]. Global Change Biology,2021. |
APA | Reinhard Prestele,Calum Brown,Chiara Polce,Joachim Maes,&Penelope Whitehorn.(2021).Large variability in response to projected climate and land-use changes among European bumblebee species.Global Change Biology. |
MLA | Reinhard Prestele,et al."Large variability in response to projected climate and land-use changes among European bumblebee species".Global Change Biology (2021). |
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