Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15727 |
Predicting the responses of subalpine forest landscape dynamics to climate change on the eastern Tibetan Plateau | |
Junyan Liu; Heng-Xing Zou; Benedicte Bachelot; Tingfa Dong; Zhongfu Zhu; Yuchen Liao; Anđ; elka Plenković; -Moraj; Yan Wu | |
2021-06-28 | |
发表期刊 | Global Change Biology |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Subalpine vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau is globally one of the most sensitive to climate change. However, the potential landscape-scale effects of climate change on subalpine forest dynamics remain largely unexplored. Here, we used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II) to simulate forest dynamics under future climate change in Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in the eastern subalpine region of the Tibetan Plateau. We examined changes in the composition, distribution and aboveground biomass of cold temperate coniferous forests, temperate coniferous forests, deciduous broad-leaved forests and redwood forest under four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the current climate) from 2016 to 2096. Our model predicts that by 2096, (i) cold temperate coniferous forests will expand and increase by 7.92%, 8.18%, 8.65% and 7.02% under current climate, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively; (ii) distribution of forests as a whole shows upward elevational range shift, especially under RCP8.5 scenario and (iii) total aboveground biomass slowly increases at first and then decreases to 12%–16% of current distribution under RCPs. These results show that climate change can be expected to significantly influence forest composition, distribution and aboveground biomass in the subalpine forests of eastern Tibetan Plateau. This study is the first to simulate forest dynamics at the landscape scale in subalpine areas of the Tibetan Plateau, which provides an important step in developing more effective strategies of forest management for expected climate change, not only in China but also around the world. |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/333694 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Junyan Liu,Heng-Xing Zou,Benedicte Bachelot,et al. Predicting the responses of subalpine forest landscape dynamics to climate change on the eastern Tibetan Plateau[J]. Global Change Biology,2021. |
APA | Junyan Liu.,Heng-Xing Zou.,Benedicte Bachelot.,Tingfa Dong.,Zhongfu Zhu.,...&Yan Wu.(2021).Predicting the responses of subalpine forest landscape dynamics to climate change on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.Global Change Biology. |
MLA | Junyan Liu,et al."Predicting the responses of subalpine forest landscape dynamics to climate change on the eastern Tibetan Plateau".Global Change Biology (2021). |
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