Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3262 |
An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming | |
Chadburn, S. E.1,2; Burke, E. J.3; Cox, P. M.2; Friedlingstein, P.2; Hugelius, G.4; Westermann, S.5 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Sweden; Norway |
英文摘要 | Permafrost, which covers 15 million km(2) of the land surface, is one of the components of the Earth system that is most sensitive to warming(1,2). Loss of permafrost would radically change high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, and could therefore provide very significant feedbacks on climate change(3-8). The latest climate models all predict warming of high-latitude soils and thus thawing of permafrost under future climate change, but with widely varying magnitudes of permafrost thaw(9,10). Here we show that in each of the models, their present-day spatial distribution of permafrost and air temperature can be used to infer the sensitivity of permafrost to future global warming. Using the same approach for the observed permafrost distribution and air temperature, we estimate a sensitivity of permafrost area loss to global mean warming at stabilization of 4.0(-1.1)(+1.0) million km(2) degrees C-1 (1 sigma confidence), which is around 20% higher than previous studies(9). Our method facilitates an assessment for COP21 climate change targets(11): if the climate is stabilized at 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, we estimate that the permafrost area would eventually be reduced by over 40%. Stabilizing at 1.5 degrees C rather than 2 degrees C would save approximately 2 million km(2) of permafrost. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400373500013 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CARBON |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33355 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England; 2.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England; 3.Met Off Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England; 4.Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden; 5.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, POB 1047 Blindern, NO-0316 Oslo, Norway |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chadburn, S. E.,Burke, E. J.,Cox, P. M.,et al. An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(5). |
APA | Chadburn, S. E.,Burke, E. J.,Cox, P. M.,Friedlingstein, P.,Hugelius, G.,&Westermann, S..(2017).An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(5). |
MLA | Chadburn, S. E.,et al."An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.5(2017). |
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