Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
OBSERVER: What’s new in the latest GloFAS 3.1 release? | |
admin | |
2021-07-01 | |
发布年 | 2021 |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | 欧洲 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
正文(英文) | OBSERVER: What’s new in the latest GloFAS 3.1 release?Floods are among the most common and dangerous natural disasters in almost every part of the world. The impact of floods to life and property is expected to increase as extreme weather events become more frequent annually. To address this threat as it evolves, the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) has implemented improvements to forecast and response to severe events. Science to predict and understand dangerous floodsScientific research on floods aims to better understand the principles of formation that lead to extreme events. These data allow civil protection authorities to better address disaster events by visualising and analysing the potential and actual impact of an event. Preparedness and fast response to dangerous conditions can save lives and prevent damage. CEMS forecasts and monitors disasters to inform civil protection authorities. This allows first-responders and government officials to make informed decisions about disaster preparedness and response. Flood data is collected and delivered by CEMS in two main ways: The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) combines weather forecasts with a hydrological model to provide flood forecast information for the next days to weeks, and to provide trends of very-wet periods for the coming months. GloFAS provides information that is completely independent of any political or administrative boundaries. This feature is critical since rivers are usually shared between multiple states or political regions, and thus the threat of river flooding is often shared. The system provides information on the forecasted danger of a flood as well as its expected duration and how many subsequent flood events can be expected. Professor Christel Prudhomme, Environmental Forecasts Team Leader at ECMWF, who is responsible for the daily computation of the GloFAS forecasts, explains: Improved accuracy and usability with GloFAS evolution 3.1Jointly developed by the Joint Research Center of the European Commission (JRC) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), GloFAS is subject to constant development as the continuous improvement of such forecasting tools is vital for maintaining their reliability. Since its operational release in 2018, there were already 3 updates of GloFAS, bringing both major and minor changes to the system. On 26 May 2021, a new version with major changes and a new modelling system was released. The most substantial change brought by version 3.1 is the provision of a new system of hydrological modelling. Previous versions of GloFAS used a coupled setup of two models - HTESSEL land surface scheme and a simplified version of LISFLOOD model.
The new version of GloFAS will replace this coupled setup with a global setup of the hydrological model LISFLOOD. By using only one model, operators have better control of all calibration parameters in the modelling framework. Additionally, the use of only one LISFLOOD model version in both EFAS and GloFAS systems ensures that any model development benefits both early warning systems. The modelling scheme used in GloFAS 3.1 was significantly improved by calibrating over 1226 river basins with a total drainage area of 51 million km2 within 66 countries. GloFAS 3.1 uses the latest atmospheric reanalysis ERA5 from CAMS, while the GloFAS version 2.1 used the previous reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim. In comparison with ERA-Interim, ERA5 benefits from a decade of developments in model physics, numerics and data assimilation. It also performs significantly better in modelling precipitation, as well as forcing of land surface and hydrological models. In addition to these changes, GloFAS 3.1 includes also a new hydrological modelling performance layer which allows the users to better analyse the forecast skill of GloFAS for their specific region or river basin. Finally, the rapid risk assessment products have been improved by adding more information on potentially affected infrastructure by the predicted flood event such as health facilities or airports. Interested users can not only access the forecast information through the map viewer, but can also download all the model output data from the Climate Data Store of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The detailed technical information about GloFAS 3.1 can be found on the GloFAS wiki. GloFAS for preparedness: A use case in BangladeshIn a recent activation example, forecasts from GloFAS were used to mitigate the impact of monsoon floods in Bangladesh in 2020. The floods caused vast damage in the country. Over 5 million people were affected, tens of thousands were evacuated with their livestock and 41 people lost their lives. However, without early warning from GloFAS, the damage and the number of casualties would have been much higher. The flood forecast was delivered with 10-day lead time and enabled authorities to warn locals at risk. The information such as start date, peak time of floods and duration allowed civil protection authorities to take appropriate protective measures against the flood ahead of time. Apart from disaster managers, the data were communicated also to humanitarian agencies. The event served as a test for the related ‘forecast-based-financing’ model, which aims to inform humanitarian agencies about a disaster ahead of time, allowing them to release the funds before an event. This improves the swiftness of the humanitarian response and saves precious time. Sazzad Hossain, Flood Forecaster from the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre in Bangladesh said about GloFAS: (Figure a) Probability of exceeding 300 mm of rainfall in 10 days in ECMWF ensemble forecasts (forecast issued on 20 May 2020, Source: GloFAS). Information provided by GloFAS empowers communities threatened by floods to prepare for, and effectively respond to, disaster events. This helps protect the livelihoods and lives of people across the globe. |
URL | 查看原文 |
来源平台 | The Copernicus Programme |
文献类型 | 新闻 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/333527 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | admin. OBSERVER: What’s new in the latest GloFAS 3.1 release?. 2021. |
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