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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaecfb |
Systematic errors in northern Eurasian short-term weather forecasts induced by atmospheric boundary layer thickness | |
Esau, Igor1; Tolstykh, Mikhail2,3,4; Fadeev, Rostislav2,3,4; Shashkin, Vladimir2,3; Makhnorylova, Svetlana3; Miles, Victoria1; Melnikov, Vladimir5 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Norway; Russia |
英文摘要 | Systematic errors in forecast near-surface air temperature (SAT) still constitute a considerable problem for numerical weather prediction (NWP) at high latitudes. Numerous studies in the past have attempted to reduce this problem through recalibration of physical parameterization schemes and better approximation of the surface energy budget. The errors, however, remain despite notable improvements in the overall weather forecast performance. This study looks at the problem from a different perspective. It analyzes asymmetries in the SAT forecast errors. The study reveals a statistical pattern of warm SAT biases under cold weather conditions and cold SAT biases under warm weather conditions. The largest errors were found in shallow atmospheric boundary layers (ABLs). The study attributes the problem to the modeled excessive ABL thickness in northern Eurasia (the NEFI region). The ABL thickness is considered as a scaling factor controlling the efficacy of the applied surface heating. Too thick an ABL damps the magnitude and agility of the SAT response. The study utilized the operational model SL-AV of the Russian Hydrometeorological Centre. Two turbulence schemes were evaluated in the northern European and western Siberian regions of Russia against observations from 73 meteorological stations. The pTKE (old) scheme is based on the local balance of the turbulence characteristics. The TOUCANS (new) scheme incorporated the total turbulence energy equations in an energy-flux balance approach. Neither scheme uses the ABL thickness as a prognostic parameter. The study reveals that the SAT errors are consistent with the damped response of temperature and reduced agility of temperature fluctuations in too thick ABLs. The TOUCANS scheme did not improve those features, probably because it links the turbulent fluxes and the ABL thickness. The SAT errors in shallow ABLs persist in the new scheme. This study emphasizes the need for a closer look at the ABL thickness in the NWP models. |
英文关键词 | atmospheric boundary layer numerical weather prediction model high-latitude weather forecast scaling factor |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000453617600002 |
WOS关键词 | INVERSION STRENGTH ; MODEL ; SURFACE ; PARAMETERIZATIONS ; FLUXES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33237 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Nansen Environm & Remote Sensing Ctr, Thormohlensgt 47, N-5006 Bergen, Norway; 2.Russian Acad Sci, Marchuk Inst Numer Math, 8 Gubkina St, Moscow 119333, Russia; 3.Hydrometctr Russia, B Predtecenskii Lane 11-13, Moscow 123242, Russia; 4.Moscow Inst Phys & Technol, 9 Inst Skii Lane, Moscow 141701, Russia; 5.Tyumen State Univ, Volodarskogo Sr 6, Tyumen 625003, Russia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Esau, Igor,Tolstykh, Mikhail,Fadeev, Rostislav,et al. Systematic errors in northern Eurasian short-term weather forecasts induced by atmospheric boundary layer thickness[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(12). |
APA | Esau, Igor.,Tolstykh, Mikhail.,Fadeev, Rostislav.,Shashkin, Vladimir.,Makhnorylova, Svetlana.,...&Melnikov, Vladimir.(2018).Systematic errors in northern Eurasian short-term weather forecasts induced by atmospheric boundary layer thickness.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(12). |
MLA | Esau, Igor,et al."Systematic errors in northern Eurasian short-term weather forecasts induced by atmospheric boundary layer thickness".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.12(2018). |
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