GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aa5efc
Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes
Mankin, Justin S.1,2,3; Viviroli, Daniel4; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.5; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.6,7; Horton, Radley M.6; Smerdon, Jason E.1; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.7,8
2017-04-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2017
卷号12期号:4
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; Switzerland; Netherlands; Singapore
英文摘要

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people's exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and 'irreducible' uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, similar to 31%-35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure:. 86%-91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from -3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes.


英文关键词climate change internal climate variability water resources CESM large ensemble blue water footprint
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000397804000007
WOS关键词GLOBAL WATER-RESOURCES ; SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; STREAMFLOW ; SCARCITY ; AVAILABILITY ; SCENARIO ; TRENDS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33229
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, New York, NY 10027 USA;
2.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA;
3.Stanford Univ, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program Environm & Resou, Stanford, CA 94305 USA;
4.Univ Zurich, Dept Geog, Zurich, Switzerland;
5.Univ Twente, Dept Water Engn & Management, Enschede, Netherlands;
6.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY USA;
7.Natl Univ Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew Sch Publ Policy, Inst Water Policy, Singapore 259770, Singapore;
8.Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA;
9.Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Mankin, Justin S.,Viviroli, Daniel,Mekonnen, Mesfin M.,et al. Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(4).
APA Mankin, Justin S..,Viviroli, Daniel.,Mekonnen, Mesfin M..,Hoekstra, Arjen Y..,Horton, Radley M..,...&Diffenbaugh, Noah S..(2017).Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(4).
MLA Mankin, Justin S.,et al."Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.4(2017).
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