Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5efc |
Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes | |
Mankin, Justin S.1,2,3; Viviroli, Daniel4; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.5; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.6,7; Horton, Radley M.6; Smerdon, Jason E.1; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.7,8 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Switzerland; Netherlands; Singapore |
英文摘要 | Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people's exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and 'irreducible' uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, similar to 31%-35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure:. 86%-91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from -3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes. |
英文关键词 | climate change internal climate variability water resources CESM large ensemble blue water footprint |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000397804000007 |
WOS关键词 | GLOBAL WATER-RESOURCES ; SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; STREAMFLOW ; SCARCITY ; AVAILABILITY ; SCENARIO ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33229 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, New York, NY 10027 USA; 2.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA; 3.Stanford Univ, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program Environm & Resou, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; 4.Univ Zurich, Dept Geog, Zurich, Switzerland; 5.Univ Twente, Dept Water Engn & Management, Enschede, Netherlands; 6.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY USA; 7.Natl Univ Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew Sch Publ Policy, Inst Water Policy, Singapore 259770, Singapore; 8.Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; 9.Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mankin, Justin S.,Viviroli, Daniel,Mekonnen, Mesfin M.,et al. Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(4). |
APA | Mankin, Justin S..,Viviroli, Daniel.,Mekonnen, Mesfin M..,Hoekstra, Arjen Y..,Horton, Radley M..,...&Diffenbaugh, Noah S..(2017).Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(4). |
MLA | Mankin, Justin S.,et al."Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.4(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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