Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d |
Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy? | |
Mahowald, Natalie M.1; Ward, Daniel S.2; Doney, Scott C.3; Hess, Peter G.4; Randerson, James T.5 | |
2017-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:9 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a 'business as usual' future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5. C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions. |
英文关键词 | land use climate change agriculture deforestation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411254800001 |
WOS关键词 | GREENHOUSE-GAS CONCENTRATIONS ; WOOD-HARVEST ; CARBON EMISSIONS ; USE TRANSITIONS ; SYSTEM MODEL ; GLOBAL LAND ; SCENARIOS ; DEFORESTATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33227 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Cornell Univ, Atkinson Ctr Sustainable Future, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY 14850 USA; 2.Princeton Univ, Program Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 3.Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Marine Chem & Geochem, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA; 4.Cornell Univ, Dept Biol & Environm Engn, Ithaca, NY USA; 5.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mahowald, Natalie M.,Ward, Daniel S.,Doney, Scott C.,et al. Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(9). |
APA | Mahowald, Natalie M.,Ward, Daniel S.,Doney, Scott C.,Hess, Peter G.,&Randerson, James T..(2017).Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(9). |
MLA | Mahowald, Natalie M.,et al."Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.9(2017). |
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