Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aad1d1 |
Climate change impact assessment on the potential rubber cultivating area in the Greater Mekong Subregion | |
Golbon, Reza; Cotter, Marc; Sauerborn, Joachim | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
![]() |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | In order to map potential shifts of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) cultivation as a consequence of the ongoing climate change in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), we applied rule-based classifications to a selection of nine gridded climatic data projections (precipitation and temperature, and global circulation models (GCMs)). These projections were used to form an ensemble model set covering the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at three future time sections: 2030, 2050 and 2070. We used a post classification ensemble formation technique based on a majority outcome of the classification to not only provide an ensemble projection but also to spatially track and weight the disagreements between the classified GCMs. A similar approach was used to form an ensemble model aggregating the involved climatic factors. The level of agreement between the ensemble projections and GCM products was assessed for each climatic factor separately, and also at the aggregate level. Shifting zones with high confidence were clustered based on their land use composition, physiographic attributes and proximity. Following the same ensemble formation technique and by setting a 28 degrees C threshold for annual mean temperature, we mapped areas prone to exposure to potentially excessive heat levels. Almost the entire shift projected with high certainty was in the form of expansion, associated with temperature components of climate and temporally limited to the 2030 time window where the total area conducive to rubber cultivation in the GMS is projected to exceed 50% by 2030 (from 44.3% at the turn of the century). The largest detected cluster (41% of the total shifting area), which also is the most ecologically degraded, corresponds to Northern Vietnam and Guangxi Autonomous Region of China. The area exposed to potentially excessive heat is projected to undergo a 25-fold increase under RCP4.5 by 2030 from 14568 km(2) at the baseline. |
英文关键词 | Multi-model ensemble Para rubber tree cash crops geographic information systems biodiversity deforestation Mekong Region |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439357900002 |
WOS关键词 | MAPPING TROPICAL FORESTS ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; NATURAL-RUBBER ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; WESTERN NORTH ; HEVEA-BRASILIENSIS ; INTEGRATING PALSAR ; RUSSIAN DANDELION ; STAND AGE ; PLANTATIONS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33202 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Hohenheim, Inst Agr Sci Trop, Hans Ruthenberg Inst, Agroecol Trop & Subtrop, Garbenstr 13, D-70599 Stuttgart, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Golbon, Reza,Cotter, Marc,Sauerborn, Joachim. Climate change impact assessment on the potential rubber cultivating area in the Greater Mekong Subregion[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(8). |
APA | Golbon, Reza,Cotter, Marc,&Sauerborn, Joachim.(2018).Climate change impact assessment on the potential rubber cultivating area in the Greater Mekong Subregion.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(8). |
MLA | Golbon, Reza,et al."Climate change impact assessment on the potential rubber cultivating area in the Greater Mekong Subregion".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.8(2018). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论