Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7f33 |
Comparing and combining process-based crop models and statistical models with some implications for climate change | |
Roberts, Michael J.1,2; Braun, Noah O.3; Sinclair, Thomas R.4; Lobell, David B.5; Schlenker, Wolfram6,7 | |
2017-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:9 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | We compare predictions of a simple process-based crop model (Soltani and Sinclair 2012), a simple statistical model (Schlenker and Roberts 2009), and a combination of both models to actual maize yields on a large, representative sample of farmer-managed fields in the Corn Belt region of the United States. After statistical post-model calibration, the process model (Simple Simulation Model, or SSM) predicts actual outcomes slightly better than the statistical model, but the combined model performs significantly better than either model. The SSM, statistical model and combined model all show similar relationships with precipitation, while the SSM better accounts for temporal patterns of precipitation, vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation. The statistical and combined models show a more negative impact associated with extreme heat for which the process model does not account. Due to the extreme heat effect, predicted impacts under uniform climate change scenarios are considerably more severe for the statistical and combined models than for the process-based model. |
英文关键词 | climate impacts agriculture crop simulation model statistical model model inter comparison |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411466500001 |
WOS关键词 | MAIZE YIELD ; REDUCED-FORM ; TEMPERATURES ; WHEAT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33188 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Econ, Sea Grant, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 2.Univ Hawaii Manoa, UHERO, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 3.CALTECH, Dept Aerosp, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA; 4.North Carolina State Univ, Crop & Soil Sci, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA; 5.Stanford Univ, Environm Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; 6.Columbia Univ, Sch Int & Publ Affairs, New York, NY 10027 USA; 7.Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, New York, NY 10027 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Roberts, Michael J.,Braun, Noah O.,Sinclair, Thomas R.,et al. Comparing and combining process-based crop models and statistical models with some implications for climate change[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(9). |
APA | Roberts, Michael J.,Braun, Noah O.,Sinclair, Thomas R.,Lobell, David B.,&Schlenker, Wolfram.(2017).Comparing and combining process-based crop models and statistical models with some implications for climate change.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(9). |
MLA | Roberts, Michael J.,et al."Comparing and combining process-based crop models and statistical models with some implications for climate change".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.9(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论