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DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aabef2
Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets
Tebaldi, Claudia1; Knutti, Reto1,2
2018-05-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2018
卷号13期号:5
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; Switzerland
英文摘要

Global climate policy is increasingly debating the value of very low warming targets, yet not many experiments conducted with global climate models in their fully coupled versions are currently available to help inform studies of the corresponding impacts. This raises the question whether a map of warming or precipitation change in a world 1.5 degrees C warmer than preindustrial can be emulated from existing simulations that reach higher warming targets, or whether entirely new simulations are required. Here we show that also for this type of low warming in strong mitigation scenarios, climate change signals are quite linear as a function of global temperature. Therefore, emulation techniques amounting to linear rescaling on the basis of global temperature change ratios (like simple pattern scaling) provide a viable way forward. The errors introduced are small relative to the spread in the forced response to a given scenario that we can assess from a multi-model ensemble. They are also small relative to the noise introduced into the estimates of the forced response by internal variability within a single model, which we can assess from either control simulations or initial condition ensembles. Challenges arise when scaling inadvertently reduces the inter-model spread or suppresses the internal variability, both important sources of uncertainty for impact assessment, or when the scenarios have very different characteristics in the composition of the forcings. Taking advantage of an available suite of coupled model simulations under low-warming and intermediate scenarios, we evaluate the accuracy of these emulation techniques and show that they are unlikely to represent a substantial contribution to the total uncertainty.


英文关键词BRACE1.5 Paris agreement benefits of mitigation pattern scaling low-warming scenarios climate model emulation
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000431454000002
WOS关键词2 DEGREES-C ; SIMULATIONS ; SCENARIOS ; IMPACTS ; DESIGN ; MODEL
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33176
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA;
2.ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
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Tebaldi, Claudia,Knutti, Reto. Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(5).
APA Tebaldi, Claudia,&Knutti, Reto.(2018).Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(5).
MLA Tebaldi, Claudia,et al."Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.5(2018).
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