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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aabef2 |
Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets | |
Tebaldi, Claudia1; Knutti, Reto1,2 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Global climate policy is increasingly debating the value of very low warming targets, yet not many experiments conducted with global climate models in their fully coupled versions are currently available to help inform studies of the corresponding impacts. This raises the question whether a map of warming or precipitation change in a world 1.5 degrees C warmer than preindustrial can be emulated from existing simulations that reach higher warming targets, or whether entirely new simulations are required. Here we show that also for this type of low warming in strong mitigation scenarios, climate change signals are quite linear as a function of global temperature. Therefore, emulation techniques amounting to linear rescaling on the basis of global temperature change ratios (like simple pattern scaling) provide a viable way forward. The errors introduced are small relative to the spread in the forced response to a given scenario that we can assess from a multi-model ensemble. They are also small relative to the noise introduced into the estimates of the forced response by internal variability within a single model, which we can assess from either control simulations or initial condition ensembles. Challenges arise when scaling inadvertently reduces the inter-model spread or suppresses the internal variability, both important sources of uncertainty for impact assessment, or when the scenarios have very different characteristics in the composition of the forcings. Taking advantage of an available suite of coupled model simulations under low-warming and intermediate scenarios, we evaluate the accuracy of these emulation techniques and show that they are unlikely to represent a substantial contribution to the total uncertainty. |
英文关键词 | BRACE1.5 Paris agreement benefits of mitigation pattern scaling low-warming scenarios climate model emulation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431454000002 |
WOS关键词 | 2 DEGREES-C ; SIMULATIONS ; SCENARIOS ; IMPACTS ; DESIGN ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33176 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tebaldi, Claudia,Knutti, Reto. Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(5). |
APA | Tebaldi, Claudia,&Knutti, Reto.(2018).Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(5). |
MLA | Tebaldi, Claudia,et al."Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.5(2018). |
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