资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

As the planet's dominant land use, agriculture often competes with the preservation of natural systems that provide globally and regionally important ecosystem services. How agriculture impacts ecosystem service delivery varies regionally, among services being considered, and across spatial scales. Here, we assess the tradeoffs between four ecosystem services-agricultural production, carbon storage, biophysical climate regulation, and biodiversity-using as a case study the Amazon, an active frontier of agricultural expansion. We find that the highest values for each of the ecosystem services are concentrated in different regions. Agricultural production potential and carbon storage are highest in the north and west, biodiversity greatest in the west, and climate regulation services most vulnerable to disruption in the south and east. Using a simple optimization model, we find that under scenarios of agricultural expansion that optimize total production across ecosystem services, small increases in priority for one ecosystem service can lead to reductions in other services by as much as 140%. Our results highlight the difficulty of managing landscapes for multiple environmental goals; the approach presented here can be adapted to guide value-laden conservation decisions and identify potential solutions that balance priorities.