Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017JD026654 |
Do Changing Weather Types Explain Observed Climatic Trends in the Rhine Basin? An Analysis of Within- and Between-Type Changes | |
Murawski, Aline1,2,3; Vorogushyn, Sergiy1; Buerger, Gerd3,4; Gerlitz, Lars1; Merz, Bruno1,3 | |
2018-02-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:3页码:1562-1584 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Austria |
英文摘要 | For attributing hydrological changes to anthropogenic climate change, catchment models are driven by climate model output. A widespread approach to bridge the spatial gap between global climate and hydrological catchment models is to use a weather generator conditioned on weather patterns (WPs). This approach assumes that changes in local climate are characterized by between-type changes of patterns. In this study we test this assumption by analyzing a previously developed WP classification for the Rhine basin, which is based on dynamic and thermodynamic variables. We quantify changes in pattern characteristics and associated climatic properties. The amount of between- and within-type changes is investigated by comparing observed trends to trends resulting solely from WP occurrence. To overcome uncertainties in trend detection resulting from the selected time period, all possible periods in 1901-2010 with a minimum length of 31 years are analyzed. Increasing frequency is found for some patterns associated with high precipitation, although the trend sign highly depends on the considered period. Trends and interannual variations of WP frequencies are related to the long-term variability of large-scale circulation modes. Long-term WP internal warming is evident for summer patterns and enhanced warming for spring/autumn patterns since the 1970s. Observed trends in temperature and partly in precipitation are mainly associated with frequency changes of specific WPs, but some amount of within-type changes remains. The classification can be used for downscaling of past changes considering this limitation, but the inclusion of thermodynamic variables into the classification impedes the downscaling of future climate projections. |
英文关键词 | attribution weather pattern trend analysis downscaling hypothetical trend |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426074000006 |
WOS关键词 | ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS ; NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; STOCHASTIC RAINFALL MODEL ; PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; DECADAL TRENDS ; CENTRAL-EUROPE ; VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; GENERATOR |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33145 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Potsdam, Germany; 2.Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Vienna, Austria; 3.Univ Potsdam, Inst Earth & Environm Sci, Potsdam, Germany; 4.FU Berlin, Inst Meteorol, Berlin, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Murawski, Aline,Vorogushyn, Sergiy,Buerger, Gerd,et al. Do Changing Weather Types Explain Observed Climatic Trends in the Rhine Basin? An Analysis of Within- and Between-Type Changes[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(3):1562-1584. |
APA | Murawski, Aline,Vorogushyn, Sergiy,Buerger, Gerd,Gerlitz, Lars,&Merz, Bruno.(2018).Do Changing Weather Types Explain Observed Climatic Trends in the Rhine Basin? An Analysis of Within- and Between-Type Changes.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(3),1562-1584. |
MLA | Murawski, Aline,et al."Do Changing Weather Types Explain Observed Climatic Trends in the Rhine Basin? An Analysis of Within- and Between-Type Changes".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.3(2018):1562-1584. |
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