GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2018JD029003
Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region
Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar1; Sato, Tomonori2
2018-12-16
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN2169-897X
EISSN2169-8996
出版年2018
卷号123期号:23页码:13074-13091
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Pakistan; Japan
英文摘要

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA), primarily the Arabian Peninsula (AP), is a region where the rate of mean surface temperature rise per decade is among the highest globally known during the recent past. Moreover, MENA regional climate is very sensitive to internal and external climate drivers. Therefore, it is of significant practical importance to analyze MENA sensitivity to climate trends as well as leading variability modes such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Using multiple regression technique on observations and the high-resolution atmospheric model output, this study investigates the role of climate trends and leading circulation modes such as NAO, ENSO, and ISM in inducing temperature and precipitation variability in MENA region for the period 1979-2008. Our results show substantial regional temperature and precipitation responses of ENSO, NAO, and ISM over MENA. Both the model and the observations indicate that positive phase of NAO and ENSO significantly cools central parts of MENA, in particular, the AP in winter. However, in boreal summer, the warm ENSO phase produces significant warming and drying over the tropical region. The strengthening (weakening) of ISM suggests cooling (warming) and wetting (drying) over MENA rain-belt region. Moreover, ISM induces a dipole precipitation structure over the tropics caused by Intertropical Convergence Zone shift and associated cloud distribution. High-resolution atmospheric model slightly underestimates NAO and ENSO winter cooling over the AP; however, overall patterns are well reproduced. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability.


英文关键词MENA ENSO NAO Indian summer monsoon
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000455285500003
WOS关键词NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; CASPIAN PATTERN NCP ; WINTER TEMPERATURES ; ARABIAN PENINSULA ; DECADAL TRENDS ; SAUDI-ARABIA ; MIDDLE-EAST ; PARAMETERIZATION ; TELECONNECTIONS ; PRECIPITATION
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33068
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Minist Climate Change, Global Change Impact Studies Ctr, Islamabad, Pakistan;
2.Hokkaido Univ, Fac Environm Earth Sci, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar,Sato, Tomonori. Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(23):13074-13091.
APA Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar,&Sato, Tomonori.(2018).Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(23),13074-13091.
MLA Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar,et al."Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.23(2018):13074-13091.
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