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DOI | 10.1029/2018JD030082 |
Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit | |
Saha, Subodh Kumar1; Hazra, Anupam1; Pokhrel, Samir1; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.1; Sujith, K.1; Rai, Archana1; Rahaman, Hasibur2; Goswami, B. N.3 | |
2019-02-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:4页码:1962-1974 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | India |
英文摘要 | Large socioeconomic impact of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) extremes motivated numerous attempts at its long range prediction over the past century. However, a rather low potential predictability (PP) of the seasonal ISM, contributed significantly by internal, interannual variability was considered insurmountable. Here we show that the internal variability contributed by the ISM subseasonal (synoptic+intraseasonal) fluctuations, so far considered chaotic, is partly predictable as found to be tied to slowly varying forcing (e.g., El Nino and Southern Oscillation). This provides a scientific basis for predictability of the ISM rainfall beyond the conventional estimates of PP. We establish a much higher actual limit of PP (r approximate to 0.82) through an extensive reforecast experiment (1,920years of simulation) by improving two major physics in a global coupled climate model, which raises a hope for a very reliable dynamical seasonal ISM forecasting in the near future. |
英文关键词 | Indian summer monsoon prediction climate modeling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000461856300005 |
WOS关键词 | INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ; POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; SEASONAL PREDICTABILITY ; RAINFALL ; SIMULATION ; FORECAST ; CFSV2 ; GCM ; CYCLE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33062 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Indian Inst Trop Meteorol, Pune, Maharashtra, India; 2.Indian Natl Ctr Ocean Informat Serv, Hyderabad, Telangana, India; 3.Cotton Univ, Dept Phys, Gauhati, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Saha, Subodh Kumar,Hazra, Anupam,Pokhrel, Samir,et al. Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(4):1962-1974. |
APA | Saha, Subodh Kumar.,Hazra, Anupam.,Pokhrel, Samir.,Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S..,Sujith, K..,...&Goswami, B. N..(2019).Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(4),1962-1974. |
MLA | Saha, Subodh Kumar,et al."Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.4(2019):1962-1974. |
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