GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/2017JD028097
Simulation of Changes in the Near-Surface Soil Freeze/Thaw Cycle Using CLM4.5 With Four Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets
Guo, Donglin1,2,3; Wang, Aihui1; Li, Duo4; Hua, Wei2
2018-03-16
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN2169-897X
EISSN2169-8996
出版年2018
卷号123期号:5页码:2509-2523
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

Change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle is critical for assessments of hydrological activity, ecosystems, and climate change. Previous studies investigated the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle change mostly based on in situ observations and satellite monitoring. Here numerical simulation method is tested to estimate the long-term change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle in response to recent climate warming for its application to predictions. Four simulations are performed at 0.5 degrees x0.5 degrees resolution from 1979 to 2009 using the Community Land Model version 4.5, each driven by one of the four atmospheric forcing data sets (i.e., one default Climate Research Unit-National Centers for Environmental Prediction [CRUNCEP] and three newly developed Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim). The observations from 299 weather stations in both Russia and China are employed to validate the simulated results. The results show that all simulations reasonably reproduce the observed variations in the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration (the correlation coefficients range from 0.47 to 0.99, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies range from 0.19 to 0.98). Part of the simulations also exactly simulate the trends of the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration. Of the four simulations, the results from the simulation using the CRUNCEP data set show the best overall agreement with the in situ observations, indicating that the CRUNCEP data set could be preferentially considered as the basic atmospheric forcing data set for future prediction. The simulated area-averaged annual freeze duration shortened by 8.03days on average from 1979 to 2009, with an uncertainty (one standard deviation) of 0.67days caused by the different atmospheric forcing data sets. These results address the performance of numerical model in simulating the long-term changes in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle and the role of different atmospheric forcing data sets in the simulation, which are useful for the prediction of future freeze/thaw dynamics.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000428437100008
WOS关键词GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL ; COMMUNITY LAND MODEL ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; THAW CYCLES ; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE ; VEGETATION GROWTH ; CHINA ; PERMAFROST ; DYNAMICS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32979
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China;
2.Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Joint Lab Climate & Environm Change, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China;
3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;
4.Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
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GB/T 7714
Guo, Donglin,Wang, Aihui,Li, Duo,et al. Simulation of Changes in the Near-Surface Soil Freeze/Thaw Cycle Using CLM4.5 With Four Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(5):2509-2523.
APA Guo, Donglin,Wang, Aihui,Li, Duo,&Hua, Wei.(2018).Simulation of Changes in the Near-Surface Soil Freeze/Thaw Cycle Using CLM4.5 With Four Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(5),2509-2523.
MLA Guo, Donglin,et al."Simulation of Changes in the Near-Surface Soil Freeze/Thaw Cycle Using CLM4.5 With Four Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.5(2018):2509-2523.
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