Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2017JD028026 |
Ranking CMIP5 GCMs for Model Ensemble Selection on Regional Scale: Case Study of the Indochina Region | |
Chhin, Rattana; Yoden, Shigeo | |
2018-09-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:17页码:8949-8974 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan |
英文摘要 | We propose a framework that enables the evaluation of a large number of climate models by numerous performance metrics, which can be customized toward a specific impact assessment perspective under climate change (e.g., agriculture, flood control, or else). The customization is performed by weighting the performance metrics. Three criteria are applied to combine a set of diagnostics for creating a single performance index, namely, summation of rank (SR), Euclidean distance of the cluster analysis (CA), and that of Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOF). These indices are then used to objectively select optimal ensemble subsets by applying a culling method. The model evaluation and multimodel ensemble selection in the Indochina Region as a study area are performed on precipitation for two cases: a nonweighted case applying equal weights for all 36 metrics, and a weighted case focusing on the evaluation for agricultural drought monitoring, as an example, with and without model independence and skill weights. We demonstrate that the optimal ensemble subsets of this framework improve significantly the distribution of monthly precipitation data compared to those of the best single model or the full model ensemble during the historical period. The optimal ensemble subsets of CA and EOF criteria are improved more than those of the SR criterion. The performance of the optimal ensemble subsets is also confirmed in the future projection for the RCP8.5 scenario by implementing model-as-truth experiments. A simple and user-friendly decision graph of all model members for the ensemble selection is developed, and its usefulness is demonstrated. |
英文关键词 | performance metric EOF analysis culling method optimal ensemble subsets decision graph model-as-truth experiments |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000445617500004 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS ; UNCERTAINTY ; PERFORMANCE ; MONSOON ; DATASET |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32963 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Kyoto Univ, Dept Geophys, Kyoto, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chhin, Rattana,Yoden, Shigeo. Ranking CMIP5 GCMs for Model Ensemble Selection on Regional Scale: Case Study of the Indochina Region[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(17):8949-8974. |
APA | Chhin, Rattana,&Yoden, Shigeo.(2018).Ranking CMIP5 GCMs for Model Ensemble Selection on Regional Scale: Case Study of the Indochina Region.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(17),8949-8974. |
MLA | Chhin, Rattana,et al."Ranking CMIP5 GCMs for Model Ensemble Selection on Regional Scale: Case Study of the Indochina Region".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.17(2018):8949-8974. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论