Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15665 |
Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends | |
Erpur S. Hansen; Hanno Sandvik; Kjell Einar Erikstad; Nigel G. Yoccoz; Tycho Anker-Nilssen; Jü; rgen Bader; Sé; bastien Descamps; Kevin Hodges; Michel d. S. Mesquita; Tone K. Reiertsen; Ø; ystein Varpe | |
2021-05-24 | |
发表期刊 | Global Change Biology
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | The current warming of the oceans has been shown to have detrimental effects for a number of species. An understanding of the underlying mechanisms may be hampered by the non-linearity and non-stationarity of the relationships between temperature and demography, and by the insufficient length of available time series. Most demographic time series are too short to study the effects of climate on wildlife in the classical sense of meteorological patterns over at least 30 years. Here we present a harvest time series of Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) that goes back as far as 1880. It originates in the world's largest puffin colony, in southwest Iceland, which has recently experienced a strong decline. By estimating an annual chick production index for 128 years, we found prolonged periods of strong correlations between local sea surface temperature (SST) and chick production. The sign of decennial correlations switches three times during this period, where the phases of strong negative correlations between puffin productivity and SST correspond to the early 20th century Arctic warming period and to the most recent decades. Most of the variation (72%) in chick production is explained by a model in which productivity peaks at an SST of 7.1°C, clearly rejecting the assumption of a linear relationship. There is also evidence supporting non-stationarity: The SST at which puffins production peaked has increased by 0.24°C during the 20th century, although the increase in average SST during the same period has been more than three times faster. The best supported models indicate that the population's decline is at least partially caused by the increasing SST around Iceland. |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/328722 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Erpur S. Hansen,Hanno Sandvik,Kjell Einar Erikstad,et al. Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends[J]. Global Change Biology,2021. |
APA | Erpur S. Hansen.,Hanno Sandvik.,Kjell Einar Erikstad.,Nigel G. Yoccoz.,Tycho Anker-Nilssen.,...&ystein Varpe.(2021).Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends.Global Change Biology. |
MLA | Erpur S. Hansen,et al."Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends".Global Change Biology (2021). |
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