Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL091712 |
Notable contributions of aerosols to the predictability of hail precipitation | |
Xiaofei Li; Qinghong Zhang; Jiwen Fan; Fuqing Zhang | |
2021-05-20 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | There are increasing concerns about the uncertainty aerosols produce in forecasting precipitation, particularly hail. This study provides an assessment of the contribution of aerosols to hail predictability by varying both the cloud condensation nuclei concentration (CCNC) and the initial meteorological conditions based on ensemble runs of 1200 cloud-resolving simulations. Although the meteorological perturbations produce large uncertainties in both hail and total precipitation, varying CCNC by an order of magnitude causes even larger uncertainties than the meteorological perturbations. Changing CCNC modifies the predictability of hail precipitation, with higher predictability in moderately polluted environments compared with very clean and polluted environments. Perturbing the initial meteorological conditions does not qualitatively change how aerosols affect hail and total precipitation. Constraining the initial meteorological perturbations helps reduce CCNC-caused uncertainty. These findings suggest the importance of considering aerosol effects in severe weather simulations and forecasting. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/328718 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xiaofei Li,Qinghong Zhang,Jiwen Fan,et al. Notable contributions of aerosols to the predictability of hail precipitation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | Xiaofei Li,Qinghong Zhang,Jiwen Fan,&Fuqing Zhang.(2021).Notable contributions of aerosols to the predictability of hail precipitation.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Xiaofei Li,et al."Notable contributions of aerosols to the predictability of hail precipitation".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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