Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15649 |
Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties | |
Florian Zabel; Christoph Mü; ller; Joshua Elliott; Sara Minoli; Jonas Jä; germeyr; Julia M. Schneider; James A. Franke; Elisabeth Moyer; Marie Dury; Louis Francois; Christian Folberth; Wenfeng Liu; Thomas A.M. Pugh; Stefan Olin; Sam S. Rabin; Wolfram Mauser; Tobias Hank; Alex C. Ruane; Senthold Asseng | |
2021-05-17 | |
发表期刊 | Global Change Biology |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5-8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1-2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro-ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5-8.5. The results highlight that region-specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change. |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/328685 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Florian Zabel,Christoph Mü,ller,et al. Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties[J]. Global Change Biology,2021. |
APA | Florian Zabel.,Christoph Mü.,ller.,Joshua Elliott.,Sara Minoli.,...&Senthold Asseng.(2021).Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties.Global Change Biology. |
MLA | Florian Zabel,et al."Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties".Global Change Biology (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论