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DOI | 10.1029/2017JD028043 |
Impact of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Rainfall Extremes in Southeastern China and its Predictability in CFSv2 | |
Ren, Pengfei1,2; Ren, Hong-Li2,3; Fu, Joshua-Xiouhua4; Wu, Jie2; Du, Liangmin5 | |
2018-05-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:9页码:4423-4442 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variability of the tropical climate system, which has prominent northward propagation extending much further from the equator. The impacts of BSISO on extreme rainfall in eastern China were studied using the BSISO indices and daily rainfall data in China. We revealed that the responses of extreme rainfall to BSISO activity in eastern China are not spatially uniform. Under the influences of BSISO1, the probability-distribution functions of rainfall in two southeastern China subregions: South China and Yangtze River Valley significantly skew toward larger values, respectively, in phases 4 and 8, and phases 3 and 4 with the probability of 90th extremes increased by 35-45% relative to May-August rainfall probability-distribution function, showing southward propagation with the speed of 1.96 degrees/phase. Under the BSISO2, the probability of the 90th extremes increased more than 40% in South China and Yangtze River Valley, respectively, during phases 4-5 and phases 6-7, showing northward propagation with a speed of 2.75 degrees/phase. Physical analysis showed that the increased probability of extreme rainfall is associated with intensifying moisture convergence and upward moisture transport during BSISO active phases. The hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System version 2 have been used to evaluate the modulations of BSISO on extreme rainfall and associated predictability. It was shown that the Climate Forecast System version well reproduces the modulations of BSISO on extreme rainfall within 2weeks. These results demonstrate the feasibility to develop medium-to-extended-range probabilistic forecasts of extreme rainfall for southeastern China. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000434132400002 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC ; EAST-ASIA ; PRECIPITATION ; CIRCULATION ; MJO ; TEMPERATURE ; MONSOON ; PROJECT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32846 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies, CMA NJU Joint Lab Climate Predict Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Geosci, Dept Atmospher Sci, Sch Environm Studies, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China; 4.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China; 5.Wuhan Reg Climate Ctr, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ren, Pengfei,Ren, Hong-Li,Fu, Joshua-Xiouhua,et al. Impact of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Rainfall Extremes in Southeastern China and its Predictability in CFSv2[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(9):4423-4442. |
APA | Ren, Pengfei,Ren, Hong-Li,Fu, Joshua-Xiouhua,Wu, Jie,&Du, Liangmin.(2018).Impact of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Rainfall Extremes in Southeastern China and its Predictability in CFSv2.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(9),4423-4442. |
MLA | Ren, Pengfei,et al."Impact of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Rainfall Extremes in Southeastern China and its Predictability in CFSv2".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.9(2018):4423-4442. |
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