Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0093-1 |
Limited influence of climate change mitigation on short-term glacier mass loss | |
Marzeion, Ben1; Kaser, Georg2; Maussion, Fabien2; Champollion, Nicolas1 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:4页码:305-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Austria |
英文摘要 | Glacier mass loss is a key contributor to sea-level change(1,2), slope instability in high-mountain regions(3,4) and the changing seasonality and volume of river flow(5-7). Understanding the causes, mechanisms and time scales of glacier change is therefore paramount to identifying successful strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we use temperature and precipitation fields from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 output to force a glacier evolution model, quantifying mass responses to future climatic change. We find that contemporary glacier mass is in disequilibrium with the current climate, and 36 +/- 8% mass loss is already committed in response to past greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, mitigating future emissions will have only very limited influence on glacier mass change in the twenty-first century. No significant differences between 1.5 and 2 K warming scenarios are detectable in the sea-level contribution of glaciers accumulated within the twenty-first century. In the long-term, however, mitigation will exert strong control, suggesting that ambitious measures are necessary for the long-term preservation of glaciers. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429194600016 |
WOS关键词 | PHYSICAL BASIS ; BALANCE ; 21ST-CENTURY ; FEEDBACKS ; VOLUME ; AREAS ; RISE ; TIME |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32812 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Bremen, Inst Geog, Bremen, Germany; 2.Univ Innsbruck, Dept Atmospher & Cryospher Sci, Innsbruck, Austria |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marzeion, Ben,Kaser, Georg,Maussion, Fabien,et al. Limited influence of climate change mitigation on short-term glacier mass loss[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(4):305-+. |
APA | Marzeion, Ben,Kaser, Georg,Maussion, Fabien,&Champollion, Nicolas.(2018).Limited influence of climate change mitigation on short-term glacier mass loss.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(4),305-+. |
MLA | Marzeion, Ben,et al."Limited influence of climate change mitigation on short-term glacier mass loss".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.4(2018):305-+. |
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