资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Understanding the change in intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation plays an important role in flood risk mitigation and water resource management in China. In this study, we analyzed the abrupt changes and long-term trends in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency over China from 1960 to 2015 based on daily precipitation from stations. The possible teleconnection with large-scale climate index was also been investigated. The major results are as follows: (1) 14.72% and 23.51% of all the stations over China have a change point in intensity and frequency, respectively. Moreover, most of change points occurred after 1975. (2) Extreme precipitation intensity and frequency show similar significant change trends, with a decreasing trend along the strip extending the northeast to southwest direction and an increasing trend in the two sides of the strip; 56.44% and 66.23% of all the stations shows the increasing trends in intensity and frequency. (3) Large-scale climate indices have more influences on frequency rather than intensity. Especially, Dipole Mode Index with 1 year ahead has significantly positive correlation with extreme precipitation frequency in most areas of China, except for South China.