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DOI | 10.1002/2016JD025819 |
September Arctic sea ice extent indicated by June reflected solar radiation | |
Zhan, Yizhe; Davies, Roger | |
2017-02-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 122期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | New Zealand |
英文摘要 | The predictability of the minimum sea ice extent (SIE) in the Arctic in September, especially for large anomaly years, is of strong current interest, given the rapid decline in sea ice amount. Our results show that June reflected solar radiation (RSR) is closely related to the underlying sea ice condition in that month and can be used to achieve September SIE predictions with good accuracy. The correlation coefficient between detrended June RSR and September SIE reaches 0.91 based on 16 year satellite observations, and the relatively high forecast skill using Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 reanalysis data is similar to or better than other complex prediction models. The results confirm the particular importance of the early summer sea ice state and help to explain the abrupt declines of September SIE in the 21st century (2007 and 2012). |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396121200009 |
WOS关键词 | DYNAMICAL FORECAST SYSTEM ; SEASONAL PREDICTION ; PREDICTABILITY ; ENSEMBLE ; COVER ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32728 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Auckland, Dept Phys, Auckland, New Zealand |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhan, Yizhe,Davies, Roger. September Arctic sea ice extent indicated by June reflected solar radiation[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(4). |
APA | Zhan, Yizhe,&Davies, Roger.(2017).September Arctic sea ice extent indicated by June reflected solar radiation.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(4). |
MLA | Zhan, Yizhe,et al."September Arctic sea ice extent indicated by June reflected solar radiation".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.4(2017). |
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