Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020WR029266 |
Variable 21st century climate change response for rivers in High Mountain Asia at seasonal to decadal time scales | |
S. Khanal; A.F. Lutz; P.D.A. Kraaijenbrink; B. van den Hurk; T. Yao; W.W. Immerzeel | |
2021-05-11 | |
发表期刊 | Water Resources Research |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | The hydrological response to climate change in mountainous basins manifests itself at varying spatial and temporal scales, ranging from catchment to large river basin scale and from sub‐daily to decade and century scale. To robustly assess the 21st century climate change impact for hydrology in entire High Mountain Asia (HMA) at a wide range of scales, we use a high resolution cryospheric‐hydrological model covering fifteen upstream HMA basins to quantify the compound effects of future changes in precipitation and temperature based on the range of climate change projections in the CMIP6 climate model ensemble. Our analysis reveals contrasting responses for HMA's rivers, dictated by their hydrological regimes. At the seasonal scale, the earlier onset of melting causes a shift in the magnitude and peak of water availability, to earlier in the year. At the decade to century scale, after an initial increase, the glacier melt declines by the mid or end of the century except for the Tarim river basin, where it continues to increase. Despite a large variability in hydrological regimes across HMA's rivers, our results indicate relatively consistent climate change responses across HMA in terms of total water availability at decadal time scales. Although total water availability increases for the headwaters, changes in seasonality and magnitude may diverge widely between basins and need to be addressed while adapting to future changes in a region where food security, energy security as well as biodiversity, and the livelihoods of many depend on water from HMA. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/326753 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | S. Khanal,A.F. Lutz,P.D.A. Kraaijenbrink,et al. Variable 21st century climate change response for rivers in High Mountain Asia at seasonal to decadal time scales[J]. Water Resources Research,2021. |
APA | S. Khanal,A.F. Lutz,P.D.A. Kraaijenbrink,B. van den Hurk,T. Yao,&W.W. Immerzeel.(2021).Variable 21st century climate change response for rivers in High Mountain Asia at seasonal to decadal time scales.Water Resources Research. |
MLA | S. Khanal,et al."Variable 21st century climate change response for rivers in High Mountain Asia at seasonal to decadal time scales".Water Resources Research (2021). |
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