Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017JD027577 |
Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models | |
Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I. | |
2018-04-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:7页码:3483-3496 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland |
英文摘要 | The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement. |
英文关键词 | drought climate models uncertainty drought persistence drought length bias drought persistence bias |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000430786500009 |
WOS关键词 | METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; PRECIPITATION ; CALIFORNIA ; CMIP5 ; TIME ; SIMULATIONS ; UNCERTAINTY ; VARIABILITY ; INDEXES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32654 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Moon, H.,Gudmundsson, L.,Seneviratne, S. I.. Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(7):3483-3496. |
APA | Moon, H.,Gudmundsson, L.,&Seneviratne, S. I..(2018).Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(7),3483-3496. |
MLA | Moon, H.,et al."Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.7(2018):3483-3496. |
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