资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Cuba – a large, habitat‐rich island that has cultivated economic self‐sufficiency – is tethered between contrasting predictions of non‐native species diversity. A high capacity for colonization is prognosticated by its biogeography; muted introduction of organisms is predicted by its low dependence on imports and tourism, as economic openness is understood to drive modern species redistribution. We document that Cuba has hundreds fewer regionally invasive plants than expected for its area, and its invasive assemblage deviates from other large Caribbean islands. Across dozens of Caribbean islands, area combined with tourism (not trade) predicted 90% of regional‐invasive‐plant richness. Although Cuba is a latecomer to the post‐1960s rise of tourism and merchandise imports, the country is currently experiencing rapid growth in tourism and expansion of commercial ports. Concurrent, forward‐looking policies could limit new introductions from sources such as escaped horticultural species and accidental transport by tourists, which are salient considerations with prospects for normalized trade and travel between Cuba and the US (the Caribbean’s dominant importer and tourism market). Note: a Spanish‐language version of the abstract is provided in WebPanel 3.