Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2007488118 |
Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement | |
Daniel T. Citron; Carlos A. Guerra; Andrew J. Dolgert; Sean L. Wu; John M. Henry; Héctor M. Sánchez C.; David L. Smith | |
2021-05-04 | |
发表期刊 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Newly available datasets present exciting opportunities to investigate how human population movement contributes to the spread of infectious diseases across large geographical distances. It is now possible to construct realistic models of infectious disease dynamics for the purposes of understanding global-scale epidemics. Nevertheless, a remaining unanswered question is how best to leverage the new data to parameterize models of movement, and whether one’s choice of movement model impacts modeled disease outcomes. We adapt three well-studied models of infectious disease dynamics, the susceptible–infected–recovered model, the susceptible–infected–susceptible model, and the Ross–Macdonald model, to incorporate either of two candidate movement models. We describe the effect that the choice of movement model has on each disease model’s results, finding that in all cases, there are parameter regimes where choosing one movement model instead of another has a profound impact on epidemiological outcomes. We further demonstrate the importance of choosing an appropriate movement model using the applied case of malaria transmission and importation on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, finding that one model produces intelligible predictions of R0, whereas the other produces nonsensical results. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/324993 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Daniel T. Citron,Carlos A. Guerra,Andrew J. Dolgert,et al. Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2021. |
APA | Daniel T. Citron.,Carlos A. Guerra.,Andrew J. Dolgert.,Sean L. Wu.,John M. Henry.,...&David L. Smith.(2021).Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. |
MLA | Daniel T. Citron,et al."Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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