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DOI | 10.1002/2017JD027249 |
Quantifying the Uncertainties in an Ensemble of Decadal Climate Predictions | |
Strobach, Ehud1,2,3; Bel, Golan1,4 | |
2017-12-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 122期号:24 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Israel; USA |
英文摘要 | Meaningful climate predictions must be accompanied by their corresponding range of uncertainty. Quantifying the uncertainties is nontrivial, and different methods have been suggested and used in the past. Here we propose a method that does not rely on any assumptions regarding the distribution of the ensemble member predictions. The method is tested using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 1981-2010 decadal predictions and is shown to perform better than two other methods considered here. The improved estimate of the uncertainties is of great importance both for practical use and for better assessing the significance of the effects seen in theoretical studies. |
英文关键词 | uncertainties decadal climate predictions ensemble |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000419950200007 |
WOS关键词 | MOS METHODS ; MODEL ; IMPROVEMENT ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32495 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Dept Solar Energy & Environm Phys, Blaustein Inst Desert Res, Sede Boqer Campus, Beer Sheva, Israel; 2.Univ Maryland, Coll Comp Math & Nat Sci, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 3.NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, Greenbelt, MD USA; 4.Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Dept Phys, Beer Sheva, Israel |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Strobach, Ehud,Bel, Golan. Quantifying the Uncertainties in an Ensemble of Decadal Climate Predictions[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(24). |
APA | Strobach, Ehud,&Bel, Golan.(2017).Quantifying the Uncertainties in an Ensemble of Decadal Climate Predictions.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(24). |
MLA | Strobach, Ehud,et al."Quantifying the Uncertainties in an Ensemble of Decadal Climate Predictions".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.24(2017). |
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