GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/2017JD027249
Quantifying the Uncertainties in an Ensemble of Decadal Climate Predictions
Strobach, Ehud1,2,3; Bel, Golan1,4
2017-12-27
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN2169-897X
EISSN2169-8996
出版年2017
卷号122期号:24
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Israel; USA
英文摘要

Meaningful climate predictions must be accompanied by their corresponding range of uncertainty. Quantifying the uncertainties is nontrivial, and different methods have been suggested and used in the past. Here we propose a method that does not rely on any assumptions regarding the distribution of the ensemble member predictions. The method is tested using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 1981-2010 decadal predictions and is shown to perform better than two other methods considered here. The improved estimate of the uncertainties is of great importance both for practical use and for better assessing the significance of the effects seen in theoretical studies.


英文关键词uncertainties decadal climate predictions ensemble
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000419950200007
WOS关键词MOS METHODS ; MODEL ; IMPROVEMENT ; SYSTEM
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32495
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Dept Solar Energy & Environm Phys, Blaustein Inst Desert Res, Sede Boqer Campus, Beer Sheva, Israel;
2.Univ Maryland, Coll Comp Math & Nat Sci, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA;
3.NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, Greenbelt, MD USA;
4.Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Dept Phys, Beer Sheva, Israel
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Strobach, Ehud,Bel, Golan. Quantifying the Uncertainties in an Ensemble of Decadal Climate Predictions[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(24).
APA Strobach, Ehud,&Bel, Golan.(2017).Quantifying the Uncertainties in an Ensemble of Decadal Climate Predictions.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(24).
MLA Strobach, Ehud,et al."Quantifying the Uncertainties in an Ensemble of Decadal Climate Predictions".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.24(2017).
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