Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2021GL092939 |
Statistical modeling of the Bering Strait throughflow for operational sea ice forecasting in the Chukchi Sea | |
Jed E. Lenetsky; Mark C. Serreze | |
2021-04-29 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | We utilize statistically‐modeled ocean heat transports through the Bering Strait along with additional predictors to create skillful predictions of sea ice retreat and advance dates in the Chukchi Sea. Interannual variability of June and September oceanic heat transports through the strait can be captured using modeled Ekman transports, surface winds, and sea surface temperatures. At one‐month leads, our models can explain 41% and 79% of sea ice retreat and advance date variance with root mean squared errors (RMSE) of 10.2 and 12.8 days respectively. At 4‐month leads, our models can respectively capture 37% and 73% of sea ice retreat and advance date variance with RMSEs of 8.5 and 14.6 days. These findings offer a path towards operational forecasts of sea ice retreat and advance dates in the Chukchi Sea in the absence of direct, readily available observations of heat transports in the strait. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/324924 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jed E. Lenetsky,Mark C. Serreze. Statistical modeling of the Bering Strait throughflow for operational sea ice forecasting in the Chukchi Sea[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | Jed E. Lenetsky,&Mark C. Serreze.(2021).Statistical modeling of the Bering Strait throughflow for operational sea ice forecasting in the Chukchi Sea.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Jed E. Lenetsky,et al."Statistical modeling of the Bering Strait throughflow for operational sea ice forecasting in the Chukchi Sea".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
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