Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit

doi:10.1126/science.aba8767

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1126/science.aba8767
	Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit
	Hongbo Duan; Sheng Zhou; Kejun Jiang; Christoph Bertram; Mathijs Harmsen; Elmar Kriegler; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Shouyang Wang; Shinichiro Fujimori; Massimo Tavoni; Xi Ming; Kimon Keramidas; Gokul Iyer; James Edmonds
	2021-04-23
发表期刊	Science
出版年	2021
英文摘要	The 2016 Paris Agreement set the ambitious goals of keeping global temperature rise this century below 2°C, or even better, 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. Substantial interventions are required to meet these goals, particularly for industrialized countries. Duan et al. projected that China will need to reduce its carbon emissions by more than 90% and its energy consumption by almost 40% to do its share in reaching the 1.5°C target. Negative emission technology is an essential element of any plan. China's accumulated economic costs by 2050 may be about 3 to 6% of its gross domestic product. Science , this issue p. [378][1] Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a key question is what this would mean for China’s emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the “no policy” case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China’s accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5°C warming limit. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aba8767
领域	气候变化 ; 资源环境
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文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/324077
专题	气候变化资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hongbo Duan,Sheng Zhou,Kejun Jiang,等. Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit[J]. Science,2021.
APA	Hongbo Duan.,Sheng Zhou.,Kejun Jiang.,Christoph Bertram.,Mathijs Harmsen.,...&James Edmonds.(2021).Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit.Science.
MLA	Hongbo Duan,et al."Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit".Science (2021).