资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Near-surface winds over the Adriatic region are examined under present-day and future climate conditions for two greenhouse gas scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) with an ensemble of high-resolution (0.11 degrees) Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) simulations. The influence of particular combinations of regional climate models and global climate models and emission scenarios on the future changes in the near-surface wind field has been explored in more detail. Starting with the seasonal climate change signal in large-scale flow over the entire CORDEX domain, we focus on regional daily wind fields over the Adriatic domain and subdaily features of well-known regional winds (Bora and Sirocco winds). The analysis reveals the strong sensitivity of the climate change signal in the simulated wind flow to (i) the choice of the global climate model that provides the boundary conditions and (ii) the analyzed locations across the Adriatic region. The results of the 21st-century projections indicate that the changes in synoptic activity have an impact on the wind field at the (sub)daily time scale. We found a reduction in the number of Bora events and increase in the number of Sirocco events in northern Adriatic during the winter season, with an increase in pressure in the middle of the 21st century. Overall, the mean wind speed during Bora and Sirocco events is reduced, except for Bora in northern Adriatic. For the summer season, we found a large increase in the number of thermally induced flows, which is probably caused by the weakening of the Azores High.