Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018JD028908 |
The Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event in February 2018 and its Prediction by a Climate System Model | |
Rao, Jian1,2; Ren, Rongcai1,2; Chen, Haishan1; Yu, Yueyue1; Zhou, Yang1 | |
2018-12-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:23页码:13332-13345 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | A major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event was observed in February 2018 after a 4-year absence since the winter of 2013/2014. Based on the reanalysis data, the polar night jet changed from a very strong state to a moderate state during 12-19 January, and the moderate westerlies directly reversed to easterlies during 5-15 February. The intensified East Asian trough, Alaskan blocking, and East U.S. trough amplified the extratropical climatological wave 2, which propagated upward into the stratosphere, leading to a vortex-splitting SSW event. Predictions of the February 2018 SSW event are explored in hindcasts initialized 0-4weeks in advance by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model. Less than 20% of the 28 ensemble members predict the reversal of [U](60 degrees N, 10hPa) in hindcasts initialized 3 or 4weeks in advance if a 5-day error is allowed, while this ratio increases to 43% in hindcasts initialized 1week in advance. Based on the climatological occurrence of SSW events in the forecast system, the maximum deterministic predictable limit of this event is 1-2weeks in this forecast system. The eddy heat flux and its domination by wave 2 can only be predicted within the predictable time limit. A comparison between hindcast members initialized 2weeks in advance suggests that the extratropical troughs and blockings are responsible for the upward propagation of waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The predictable limit of the stratospheric circulation pattern for the February 2018 SSW, 1-2weeks, also generalizes to other vortex split SSW events such as the January 2009 and February 1999 cases. |
英文关键词 | stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) predictability BCC_CSM vortex splitting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000455285500017 |
WOS关键词 | SOUTHERN-HEMISPHERE ; ARCTIC OSCILLATION ; PART I ; UNIFIED PARAMETERIZATION ; OROGRAPHIC DRAG ; SEPTEMBER 2002 ; PREDICTABILITY ; FORECAST ; VARIABILITY ; SIMULATIONS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32324 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change,Colla, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rao, Jian,Ren, Rongcai,Chen, Haishan,et al. The Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event in February 2018 and its Prediction by a Climate System Model[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(23):13332-13345. |
APA | Rao, Jian,Ren, Rongcai,Chen, Haishan,Yu, Yueyue,&Zhou, Yang.(2018).The Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event in February 2018 and its Prediction by a Climate System Model.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(23),13332-13345. |
MLA | Rao, Jian,et al."The Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event in February 2018 and its Prediction by a Climate System Model".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.23(2018):13332-13345. |
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