Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017JD026701 |
Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China | |
Liu, Jianyu1,2; Zhang, Qiang3,4; Zhang, Yongqiang2; Chen, Xi5; Li, Jianfeng6; Aryal, Santosh K.2 | |
2017-10-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 122期号:19 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Australia |
英文摘要 | Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000413675900005 |
WOS关键词 | MEAN ANNUAL RUNOFF ; RIVER FLOW REGIMES ; WATER-RESOURCES ; POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; FUTURE CHANGES ; MODELS ; TEMPERATURE ; EQUATIONS ; EXTREMES ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32307 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Dept Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; 2.CSIRO Land & Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia; 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 5.Hohai Univ, Sch Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 6.Hong Kong Baptist Univ, Dept Geog, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Jianyu,Zhang, Qiang,Zhang, Yongqiang,et al. Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(19). |
APA | Liu, Jianyu,Zhang, Qiang,Zhang, Yongqiang,Chen, Xi,Li, Jianfeng,&Aryal, Santosh K..(2017).Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(19). |
MLA | Liu, Jianyu,et al."Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.19(2017). |
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