Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL091779 |
The 2000‐2012 global warming hiatus more likely with a low climate sensitivity | |
Angshuman Modak; Thorsten Mauritsen | |
2021-04-18 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | The global warming hiatus during the first decade of the twenty‐first Century has posed a challenge to the scientific community, though a leading explanation is that it was caused by internal variability overlaying a forced global warming trend. Here we apply the Winton‐Held two‐layer model and show that the probability of the observed 2000‐2012 hiatus period to arise from internal variability driven by white noise is larger if climate sensitivity is low. This is due to the delayed response of the oceans that cause the forced trend to increase faster with rising climate sensitivity than does natural variability, leading to a decreasing likelihood of observing the hiatus. The results are confirmed with the latest climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/322788 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Angshuman Modak,Thorsten Mauritsen. The 2000‐2012 global warming hiatus more likely with a low climate sensitivity[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | Angshuman Modak,&Thorsten Mauritsen.(2021).The 2000‐2012 global warming hiatus more likely with a low climate sensitivity.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Angshuman Modak,et al."The 2000‐2012 global warming hiatus more likely with a low climate sensitivity".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
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