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COVID-19 Demographic Trends, Vaccinating 'High-Contact' People, the Iran Threat Network: RAND Weekly Recap | |
admin | |
2021-04-16 | |
发布年 | 2021 |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | 美国 |
领域 | 资源环境 |
正文(英文) | We discuss the ways COVID-19 is affecting demographic trends; how targeting vaccines to people with a lot of contacts could end the pandemic more quickly; understanding the Iran Threat Network; the vulnerability of America's supply chains; why U.S. intelligence needs open-source information; and how to deter North Korea. How the Pandemic Is Shaping Demographic TrendsDemographic trends in fertility, mortality, and migration are responsible for shifts in the structure of any population. The pandemic is affecting all these areas, disrupting the very makeup of American society, say RAND researchers.
It's difficult to know how this combination of trends will play out. But more time and more data will provide a clearer picture of whether these disruptions are short-lived—or whether they change the demography of the nation and the world for the foreseeable future. To Crush COVID, Target the Vaccine to 'High-Contact' PeopleAs vaccine eligibility continues to expand, recent modeling by RAND researchers shows just how important it is for Americans who have many daily contacts to get vaccinated. Vaccinating just 15 percent of the U.S. population would be enough to crush the epidemic—so long as that 15 percent is made up of people who have the most contacts. To help target vaccinations, health officials could work directly with places where people have high numbers of contacts, such as churches and factories. Understanding the Iran Threat NetworkThe Iran Threat Network is a formidable force of tens of thousands of fighters across the Middle East and South Asia. A new RAND report concludes that this network is Iran's primary means of power projection. And groups that make up the network—not Tehran—are most likely to launch attacks against U.S. and other targets. The authors recommend that Washington formulate specific responses to these groups. America's Supply Chains Aren't Ready for a CrisisAs the first wave of COVID-19 began to tear through the United States last year, some hospitals saw the need for ventilators increase by 500 to 700 percent. This highlighted an early lesson of the pandemic: America is not prepared for major shocks to its supply chains. This vulnerability constitutes a national security threat, says RAND's Bradley Martin. To respond effectively, officials need to gain a deeper understanding of what supply chains actually look like and how they affect one another. Why U.S. Intelligence Needs Open-Source InformationBy relying heavily on information gathered by classified satellites and its intelligence-collection programs, the U.S. intelligence community has willfully blinded itself to a trove of public information available online. That's according to RAND's Cortney Weinbaum. The need to monitor such open-source information is urgent, she says. This could help the government uncover foreign adversaries' plans to harm the United States, identify sources of domestic radicalization, and potentially save lives. How to Deter North KoreaNorth Korea's nuclear weapons are an existential threat to South Korea and a potentially serious threat to the United States. Attempts to address this threat by negotiating with North Korea will likely continue to fail, say the authors of new RAND paper. Instead, Washington and Seoul could focus on convincing Pyongyang that any nuclear weapon use would be disastrous for the Kim regime. If North Korea believes its weapons are a liability rather than an asset, then it may consider some degree of denuclearization. Listen to the RecapGet Weekly Updates from RANDIf you enjoyed this weekly recap, consider subscribing to Policy Currents, our newsletter and podcast. |
URL | 查看原文 |
来源平台 | RAND Corporation |
文献类型 | 新闻 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/322672 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | admin. COVID-19 Demographic Trends, Vaccinating 'High-Contact' People, the Iran Threat Network: RAND Weekly Recap. 2021. |
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