Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60 |
Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions | |
Melia, N.1,2; Haines, K.1; Hawkins, E.2; Day, J. J.2 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | The continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice will likely lead to increased human activity and opportunities for shipping in the region, suggesting that seasonal predictions of route openings will become ever more important. Here we present results from a set of 'perfect model' experiments to assess the predictability characteristics of the opening of Arctic sea routes. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts show lower skill before a May 'predictability barrier'. We demonstrate that in forecasts started from January, predictions of route opening date are twice as uncertain as predicting the closing date and that the Arctic shipping season is becoming longer due to climate change, with later closing dates mostly responsible. We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than medium ice years. Forecasting the fastest open water route through the Arctic is accurate to within 200 km when predicted from July, a six-fold increase in accuracy compared to forecasts initialised from the previous November, which are typically no better than climatology. Finally we find that initialisation of accurate summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts, further motivating investment into sea-ice thickness observations, climate models, and assimilation systems. |
英文关键词 | seasonal forecasts climate prediction Arctic shipping Arctic sea-ice climate change impacts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000406280800001 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-ICE THICKNESS ; FORECAST SKILL ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; PREDICTABILITY ; INITIALIZATION ; MODEL ; IMPACT ; EXTENT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32123 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Earth Observat, Reading, Berks, England; 2.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, NCAS Climate, Reading, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Melia, N.,Haines, K.,Hawkins, E.,et al. Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(8). |
APA | Melia, N.,Haines, K.,Hawkins, E.,&Day, J. J..(2017).Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(8). |
MLA | Melia, N.,et al."Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.8(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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