Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a |
How do I know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system? | |
Cloke, Hannah L.1; Pappenberger, Florian2,3; Smith, Paul J.2; Wetterhall, Fredrik2 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems. |
英文关键词 | flood early warning systems forecast skill monetary value european flood awareness system copernicus multi-forcing ensemble flood resilience |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000397804000006 |
WOS关键词 | RANKED PROBABILITY SCORE ; ALERT SYSTEM ; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION ; FORECASTS ; VERIFICATION ; EVENTS ; EUROPE ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32097 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Reading, Berks, England; 2.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England; 3.Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cloke, Hannah L.,Pappenberger, Florian,Smith, Paul J.,et al. How do I know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system?[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(4). |
APA | Cloke, Hannah L.,Pappenberger, Florian,Smith, Paul J.,&Wetterhall, Fredrik.(2017).How do I know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system?.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(4). |
MLA | Cloke, Hannah L.,et al."How do I know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system?".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.4(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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