GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb3
Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes
Buchanan, Maya K.1; Oppenheimer, Michael1,2; Kopp, Robert E.3,4
2017-06-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2017
卷号12期号:6
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

The amplification of flood frequencies by sea level rise (SLR) is expected to become one of the most economically damaging impacts of climate change for many coastal locations. Understanding the magnitude and pattern by which the frequency of current flood levels increase is important for developing more resilient coastal settlements, particularly since flood risk management (e.g. infrastructure, insurance, communications) is often tied to estimates of flood return periods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report characterized the multiplication factor by which the frequency of flooding of a given height increases (referred to here as an amplification factor; AF). However, this characterization neither rigorously considered uncertainty in SLR nor distinguished between the amplification of different flooding levels (such as the 10% versus 0.2% annual chance floods); therefore, it may be seriously misleading. Because both historical flood frequency and projected SLR are uncertain, we combine joint probability distributions of the two to calculate AFs and their uncertainties over time. Under probabilistic relative sea level projections, while maintaining storm frequency fixed, we estimate a median 40-fold increase (ranging from 1- to 1314-fold) in the expected annual number of local 100-year floods for tide-gauge locations along the contiguous US coastline by 2050. While some places can expect disproportionate amplification of higher frequency events and thus primarily a greater number of historically precedented floods, others face amplification of lower frequency events and thus a particularly fast growing risk of historically unprecedented flooding. For example, with 50 cm of SLR, the 10%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance floods are expected respectively to recur 108, 335, and 814 times as often in Seattle, but 148, 16, and 4 times as often in Charleston, SC.


英文关键词sea level rise coastal flooding climate change impacts deep uncertainty extreme value theory risk management
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000403329500001
WOS关键词EXTREME
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:111[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32093
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;
2.Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;
3.Rutgers State Univ, Rutgers Energy Inst, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, New Brunswick, NJ USA;
4.Rutgers State Univ, Inst Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, New Brunswick, NJ USA
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GB/T 7714
Buchanan, Maya K.,Oppenheimer, Michael,Kopp, Robert E.. Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(6).
APA Buchanan, Maya K.,Oppenheimer, Michael,&Kopp, Robert E..(2017).Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(6).
MLA Buchanan, Maya K.,et al."Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.6(2017).
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